Value is a mathematical advantage over the market. If you find such events over time, you will be profitable, even if individual matches result in losses.
Key Formula:
Value = Model Probability - Market Probability
Numeric Example:
- Match: Arsenal — Liverpool.
- Odds for Arsenal = 2.50. Market Probability = 40% (1/2.50).
- Your model calculated the win probability for Arsenal at 45%.
- Value = 45% - 40% = +5%.
If the Edge is positive, the event is considered "Value". Our goal is to find precisely these discrepancies.