Even if you have an advantage over the market, you can lose 5 or 10 times in a row. This is called variance — a random deviation from the expected result.
Concepts to remember:
- Variance: "Noise" and luck/bad luck over a short period.
- Distance: The law of large numbers. Over a span of 500-1000 events, randomness is negated, and your mathematical edge turns into real profit.
Never judge a strategy based on 10 matches. Analytics only works over a long distance.